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Nasdaq-100 / A comparison since 2021

Nasdaq-100 rebalancing.
Backtest vs buy-and-hold.

How does a cash reserve change the path of a Nasdaq-100 portfolio?

Source Yahoo Finance ^NDX · daily sessionsWindow Jan 1, 2021 – Sep 30, 2026Updated Oct 8, 2026

Price-only index backtest using hypothetical index units. Indices cannot be bought directly; dividends, ETF fees and tracking differences are excluded. Session dates follow America/New_York. Cash is held in USD with no interest.

Your allocation. Your rules.

Try a different balance.

$10,000 starting capital · Jan 1, 2021 – Sep 30, 2026 · Daily observations

$8,000 of starting capitalCash allocation: 20% · $2,000

Invested weight band: 68.0–92.0%. Corrections aim back at 80% invested.

Dynamic cash allocation

Reference amount: $10,000 USD · fixed for the entire backtest.

Fixed fee: 0.2% per order, charged on initial buys and every correction.

Buy below 68.0% invested · Sell above 92.0% invested

Change a slider to recalculate using the same historical data.

The path of $10,000

Two strategies. One market.

Sep 30, 2026 · Daily closeBuy & hold $23,434Rebalancing $20,752
Actual cash: 9.62%Cash target: 20.00%NDX target: 80.00% · actual: 90.38%Actual invested: 90.38%
NDX buy-and-hold and rebalancing equity curvesDaily portfolio value. Buy-and-hold ends at $23,434; rebalancing ends at $20,752. Use the date slider below to inspect values. Green circles indicate buys; orange triangles indicate sells.$0$6,395$12,789$19,184$25,5792021-012022-022023-042024-062025-082026-09
● Buy   ▲ Sell · Markers use closing equity; orders fill at the open.

Includes daily values, effective target weights and skipped-order reasons. 0 orders skipped.

Look beyond the finish line

Return, risk, and the cost of trading.

Maximum drawdown measures the largest daily-close fall from a previous portfolio peak.

Ending equity

$20,752Rebalancing

Buy & hold $23,434

Total return

107.52%Rebalancing

Buy & hold 134.34%

Annualized return

13.55%Rebalancing

Buy & hold 15.97%

Maximum drawdown

29.75%Rebalancing

Buy & hold 35.56%

Trading fees paid

$15.97Rebalancing

Buy & hold $19.96

Executed orders

1Rebalancing

Buy & hold 1

What this run tells you

With 20% target cash, a 15% relative allocation threshold, and 0.20% fees, rebalancing finished $2,683 behind buy-and-hold. Its maximum drawdown was 5.81 percentage points smaller.

The comparison includes both the effect of holding cash and the effect of rebalancing. It does not isolate a rebalancing premium. A lower drawdown and a higher return are different outcomes.

Different years, different outcomes

A year-by-year view.

Calendar-year returns after modeled fees. Partial years cover only the available window.

NDX annual portfolio returns
YearBuy & holdRebalancingDifference
202125.77%20.62%-5.15 pp
2022-32.97%-27.51%5.46 pp
202353.81%41.52%-12.29 pp
202424.88%20.86%-4.01 pp
202520.17%17.48%-2.69 pp
2026 partial20.43%18.11%-2.32 pp
Every correction, accounted for

The order ledger.

Signals use the previous daily close. Fills use the next available trading session’s open. The initial purchase is included.

Executed NDX orders; monetary columns use USD
Session dateOrderNDX quantityPriceOrder valueFeeCash afterInvested after
Jan 4, 2021buy initial0.616763$12,950.22$7,987.22$15.97$1,996.8180.00%
1 orders · Page 1 of 1
Reading the NDX comparison

The path matters
as much as the endpoint.

The Nasdaq-100 tracks large non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. This price-only comparison shows how allocation bands change exposure through advances and declines. It models hypothetical index units rather than a tradable fund, and excludes dividends and fund tracking costs.

These two strategies have different exposure: buy-and-hold starts fully invested; rebalancing starts with your selected cash reserve. Any performance difference includes both allocation and trading effects. Neither strategy is promised to win.

Transparent by design

How this backtest works.

01 / Start on equal terms

Both portfolios start with $10,000 at the first day's open. Buy-and-hold invests its full budget; rebalancing uses your selected fixed allocation or the dynamic rule’s starting target. Initial holdings are sized to their targets after the fixed 0.2% fee, within the $10,000 budget. Dynamic cash uses a fixed $10,000 reference, increasing linearly from 5% cash at −30% return to 25% at +30% by default. The rule determines targets before invested-asset drift is checked.

02 / Observe, then execute

At each session’s close, use the Rebalio app’s evaluator to compare invested weight with target × (1 ± relative threshold). At an 80% target and 10% threshold, sell above 88% invested or buy below 72%; equality does not trigger. Cash never triggers an order. Size the full correction back to the target at the closing valuation, then fill that frozen quantity at the next session’s open.

03 / Account for every order

Buys must be fully funded, including fees; unfunded orders are skipped rather than resized. Overnight price changes and fees can leave the resulting weight away from target. A final-day signal has no fill inside the window.

04 / Value the portfolio daily

Equity is remaining cash plus units × daily closing price. There is no leverage, cash yield, added capital, withdrawal, or forced sale at the end. Maximum drawdown uses daily closes; intraday losses can be larger.

Assumptions, data provenance, and limitations

Daily OHLCV prices are downloaded from Yahoo Finance using yahoo-finance2. Crypto has one session per UTC day; US stock indices and GLD exclude weekends and exchange holidays, including exceptional closures. Missing sessions fail validation rather than being filled with invented prices. Each release starts January 1, 2021 and ends at a completed calendar quarter. The start date stays fixed when the dataset is refreshed. The displayed window and publication date identify the bundled release. Releases update manually after a completed quarter, and every market in a release is validated before publication.

We share the app’s decision and funding logic, using full fills at opening prices with a fixed 0.2% fee. Live approval expiry and 1% price-change rejection are not modeled. Historical exchange quantity steps, minimum orders, spread, slippage, liquidity constraints, taxes, and cash interest are excluded. Index levels are treated as hypothetical tradable units for comparison only; dividends, fund fees and tracking differences are excluded. Cash and crypto quotes use USD. Fees apply to initial buys and all executed corrections, and the ending portfolio is not liquidated.

CAGR annualizes the total return over the actual window using 365.2425 days per year. Calendar-year returns use the previous year's final equity; the first partial year starts from $10,000. Maximum drawdown includes the starting capital as the first peak.

Rebalio's product requires a trade preview and explicit approval. This simulated daily strategy is research, not an automated trading feature or individualized investment advice. Historical performance does not guarantee future results.

Dataset SHA-256: 04688901fbb2d2faf1fac211f778aa322c3e1d5bc0f175ae8317c1ab6ede5cea
Retrieved: 2026-10-08T10:55:21.627Z · Release: 2026-09

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